KIRIBATI STATEMENT ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON 2025/2026

Background

The Kiribati Wet Season (Auu-Meang) runs from 1st November to 30th April, a period also known as the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season.

During this season, Kiribati may experience extreme weather events, including those linked to Tropical Disturbances or Tropical Cyclones (TCs).

Past records show that the risk of cyclone-related severe weather in Kiribati tends to be higher during El Niño and Neutral (warm) phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Currently, ENSO is Neutral, with a possibility of a weak La Niña (cool phase) developing by end of this year and can only last until the first half of next year, 2026.

TCs are classified from Category 1 to 5, with Category 5 being the most intense. Cyclones rated Category 3 or higher are considered severe.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook from November 2025 to April 2026

Current and forecasted ENSO conditions are NOT FAVOURABLE for related Tropical Cyclone development in Kiribati.

For this season, Kiribati faces a LOW RISK of being directly affected by a Tropical Cyclone.

The outlook indicates 0 to 1 Tropical Cyclone may develop or pass near the Kiribati region

between November 2025 and April 2026.

Recommendations

Although, Kiribati is low risk from TC in this season, people are advised to always stay vigilant to minimize possible threats.

Potential impacts from any Tropical Cyclone or related weather systems may include storm surges, high swells that could lead to coastal inundation and erosion, strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The public is strongly advised to monitor daily weather updates issued by the Kiribati Meteorological Service (KMS) on radio, visit its Facebook page and website on www.met.gov.ki or call its toll free line on 1055.

Annex 1: Predicted Number and Risk Map of Tropical Cyclone for Nov-Apr 2025/2026.

Figure 1: Risk of TC over South Pacific from ESNZ for Nov to Apr 2025/26.

Figure 2: Outlook for TC over the South Pacific from ESNZ for Nov to Apr 2025/26.