September - November 2026
Seasonal climate information covering ENSO, rainfall, air temperature and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
Taraan kanoan boong · Tebetembwa - nobembwa 2026
Uarereken te rongorongo
Te auu-maiaki
N te tai aio ao Kiribati e teimatoa naba n tiku iaon ana Auu-maiaki are moa man Meei nakon Okitobwa.
Taraan te ENSO
Te El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), e teimatoa n tiku iaon te El Nino. Iai katautauana ba e na rikirake korakorana riki inanon rabanen te ririki aei 2026.
Taraan te karau
Taraan te karau ao e katautauaki ba e na raka iaon te nuukaniware n angiin aban nako Kiribati.
Taraan te kabuebue n te eea
E katautauaki te kabuebue iaon te aba bwa e na raka iaon te nuukaniware.
Bitakin kanoan boong n te tai ae uarereke
Climate Variability
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Te El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) e teimatoa n tiku iaon te El Nino ma katautauana ae e na rikirake korakorana inanon Tebetembwa nakon Nobembwa.
- E oti bwa man kanikina n aron kabuebuen aon taari ao kanikina riki tabeua a bane n riaon ana ware te El Nino. Te kabuebue are i taari e a tia n roko n ana ware ae +2.45°C n 30 iai bongin Aokati. Aio e kaotia ba e rang korakora El Nino n te tai aei.
- Climate Models ke baai n makuri n katautau a kaotia ba e na reitinako korakoran El Nino nuaa rabanen te ririki aei 2026.
- Uotan te El Nino nakon Kiribati bon te kakarau, rakan rietan taari, matoan te ang maeao ao rakan kabuebuen taari.
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Te MJO e kona naba n ibita kanoan boong n te maan ae 30 nakon 60 te bong.
Inanon te wiki aei ao MJO e memere korakorana ao n tabe n maing nakon te Western Pacific are Kiribati naba iai. E katautauaki ba e na tabe n rikirake korakorana inanon nukan te namakaina aio ae Tebetembwa. Te kantaningaaki ba e na iai namakinan rakan maitin te karau inanon te namakaina aei man kaotin MJO.
Tebetembwa - nobembwa 2026
Katautauan te karau ao te kabuebue
Te bwai n makuri ae te SCOPIC e kaotia n ana katautau ibukin te karau ba angiin aaba ana raka iaon te nuukaniware ibukin te namakaina ae Tebetembwa nakon Nobembwa 2026.
N taraakin te karau n te teniua n namwakaina ae imwaira n te bwai n makuri ae te PICASO ao e kaotia ba e na raka iaon te nuukaniware angin aban Kiribati ma ti Kiritimati are e katautauaki ba e na nuukaniware n ana karau.
N taraakin te kabuebue ibukin Tebetembwa ao e katautauaki bwa ena raka iaon te nuukaniware ibukin Kiribati.
N taraakin te kabuebue ibukin Tebetembwa nakon Nobembwa ao e katautauaki bwa ena raka iaon te nuukaniware ibukin Kiribati.
English version
Kiribati Climate Outlook
September - November 2026
Summary
Season
Kiribati is still in its dry season, which starts from May to October.
ENSO outlook
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains on El Niño conditions. Further intensification is expected towards the end of 2026.
Rainfall outlook
The rainfall outlook is predicted to be above normal for the Kiribati region.
Air temperature outlook
Surface air temperature is forecasted to be above normal.
Climate Variability Update
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The ENSO remains in a strong El Nino conditions with further intensification likely between September to November.
- The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric indicators remain exceeded the El Nino thresholds. The latest SST value for the week ending in 30th August is +2.45°C above the El Nino threshold (+0.80°C). It is indicated a strong El Nino.
- Climate models forecast El Nino to strengthen further, peak around late 2026.
- In Kiribati, El Nino is typically associated with increased rainfall, higher sea levels, westerly winds and warmer ocean temperatures.
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is another climate driver that influences rainfall patterns across the region over relatively short timescales, typically lasting between 30 to 60 days.
The MJO is currently weak and it is expected to strengthen and move towards the Western Pacific by mid- September. Therefore, MJO impacts is likely to be experienced in the coming week.
September - November 2026
Rainfall and Temperature Outlook
The SCOPIC tool shows above normal is the most likely outcome for September to November 2026 for all stations.
For the next three months September to November in PICASO, the rainfall is likely to be above normal for most of the stations except Kiritimati where rainfall is likely to be near-normal.
The surface air temperature on a regional scale for September indicates above air temperatures for Kiribati.
also indicates above air temperatures for September to November.
Important notice
