Kiribati Meteorological Service

Early Action Rainfall Watch

Kiribati · September 2026

Observed conditions

Rainfall Status to August 2026:

Over the last 3 months, Very wet to seriously wet existed across the Kiribati region.
Over the last 6 months, Very wet conditions existed in the Line and Phoenix groups, however, the Gilbert islands and Banaba experienced no alert conditions.
Over the last 12 months, No alert conditions existed across the Gilbert and Pheonix including Tabuaeran and Teraina while Kiritimati experienced a very wet condition.
Over the last 24 months, Very dry conditions existed over the southern Gilbert while the rest experienced no alert conditions.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation remains on El Nino phase which associated with more rainfall to the Kiribati region.

Rainfall status alert gauge — Rainfall alert status

Rainfall status by island group

Rainfall status table covering 3, 6, 12 and 24 months — Rainfall status over 3, 6, 12 and 24 months

Rainfall outlook

Extreme Rainfall Outlooks for October, October to December and November to January 2027

For October and October to December 2026 periods, a very high chance of very wet conditions across the Kiribati region is predicted.

For November to January 2027, most of the Kiribati group expecting a very high chance of very wet conditions while the northern Gilbert islands including Teraina are anticipated to have low chance of extreme wet or dry conditions.

October to December extreme rainfall outlook

November to January extreme rainfall outlook

Local planning

Time periods and impacts

The following table contains impacts that may be experienced throughout the Gilbert Islands following several months of very dry conditions. Impacts were compiled in consultation with Mayors and Clerks from the Gilbert Islands and are intended as a guide only. Specific impacts may vary depending on location.

Wet conditions

Wet condition impact table by duration and sector — Possible impacts following wet conditions

Dry conditions

Dry condition impact table: water and agriculture — Possible impacts following dry conditions

Continuation of the dry condition impact table — Dry condition impacts continued: crops and health

Reading the maps

Information on the maps

The chance of extremes outlook maps presents the likelihood of very wet or very dry conditions. They are displayed by the chance that the outlook will result in rainfall in the top or bottom 20% of historical observations for the selected outlook period. Where there is white shading, it is less likely there will be either very wet or very dry conditions, rainfall is likely to be close to normal in this case. A very high chance of very dry (very wet) conditions is associated with the highest likelihood of rainfall being in the lowest (highest) 20% on record. A medium chance of very dry (very wet) conditions is associated with a lower but reasonable chance of rainfall being in the lowest (highest) 20% on record.

The outlooks have been produced using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology ACCESS-S2 model http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/model/access.shtml.